Luckie Numbers
Updated Oct 30, 2026
Week 9 in progress
CFB 2026 · Luckie Number Power Ratings

Current ratings, all 138 FBS teams

138 teams
# Team Rating iThe model's power rating for this team, in points. The gap between two teams' ratings, plus a small home-field bump, is the predicted margin of victory. Since preseason iHow much this team's rating has moved since the season opened, based on how it has actually played so far. Trend iThis team's rating, week by week, from the preseason opener to now. Hover the line for the exact numbers.
1Georgia93.6+3.4Opening 90.1 → Week2 91.6 → Week3 92.0 → Week4 93.3 → Week5 95.1 → Week6 96.1 → Week7 93.6 → Week8 93.6
2Alabama93.1+5.3Opening 87.8 → Week1 88.3 → Week2 91.6 → Week3 91.0 → Week4 95.2 → Week5 96.7 → Week6 95.7 → Week7 92.7 → Week8 93.0 → Current 93.1
3Notre Dame93.0-0.2Opening 93.2 → Week1 94.1 → Week2 95.7 → Week3 94.2 → Week4 95.5 → Week5 91.2 → Week6 93.1 → Week7 93.0 → Week8 93.0
4Miami92.6+2.9Opening 89.7 → Week1 91.3 → Week3 91.1 → Week4 90.5 → Week5 92.9 → Week7 92.1 → Week8 91.3 → Current 92.6
5LSU91.9+2.7Opening 89.2 → Week1 93.5 → Week2 95.1 → Week3 92.2 → Week4 96.4 → Week6 87.8 → Week7 89.5 → Week8 89.7 → Current 91.9
6Ohio State91.9+0.5Opening 91.4 → Week1 94.5 → Week2 94.7 → Week3 94.9 → Week4 93.4 → Week5 94.2 → Week6 93.9 → Week7 91.9 → Week8 91.9
7Indiana91.3+0.6Opening 90.6 → Week1 92.3 → Week3 93.0 → Week4 90.4 → Week5 92.5 → Week6 93.3 → Week7 92.8 → Week8 92.5 → Current 91.3
8Ole Miss89.1+9.3Opening 79.8 → Week1 79.2 → Week2 77.7 → Week3 80.7 → Week4 80.0 → Week6 87.0 → Week7 89.7 → Week8 89.1
9Utah87.4+5.6Opening 81.8 → Week2 82.9 → Week3 82.9 → Week4 86.6 → Week6 87.9 → Week7 85.9 → Week8 87.4
10UCLA86.0+8.3Opening 77.7 → Week1 81.7 → Week2 82.8 → Week3 81.6 → Week4 86.1 → Week6 85.0 → Week7 85.3 → Week8 85.5 → Current 86.0
11BYU85.7+3.7Opening 81.9 → Week2 84.2 → Week3 85.5 → Week5 85.1 → Week6 85.9 → Week7 87.4 → Week8 86.6 → Current 85.7
12Texas85.4-3.1Opening 88.4 → Week1 88.8 → Week2 88.6 → Week3 87.3 → Week4 87.8 → Week6 87.1 → Week7 84.8 → Week8 85.4
13Kentucky84.7+9.0Opening 75.7 → Week2 72.4 → Week3 76.9 → Week4 77.7 → Week5 79.4 → Week6 81.1 → Week7 83.5 → Week8 83.7 → Current 84.7
14Wisconsin84.4+11.9Opening 72.5 → Week1 71.7 → Week3 76.0 → Week4 79.5 → Week5 83.3 → Week7 83.0 → Week8 83.9 → Current 84.4
15Tennessee84.3-1.0Opening 85.3 → Week2 86.7 → Week3 84.9 → Week4 84.4 → Week5 85.5 → Week6 82.4 → Week7 85.4 → Week8 84.3
16Northwestern84.2+9.3Opening 75.0 → Week3 77.9 → Week4 80.5 → Week5 83.0 → Week6 82.2 → Week7 82.5 → Week8 84.2
17Missouri84.2+3.3Opening 80.9 → Week2 82.7 → Week3 81.9 → Week4 82.7 → Week5 85.7 → Week6 86.4 → Week7 83.7 → Week8 84.2
18Wake Forest84.1+12.1Opening 72.0 → Week1 74.1 → Week2 74.4 → Week3 74.6 → Week4 77.5 → Week5 80.5 → Week6 81.7 → Week7 84.1 → Week8 84.1
19Florida83.8-1.8Opening 85.6 → Week1 88.0 → Week3 88.8 → Week4 89.5 → Week5 85.1 → Week6 82.1 → Week7 83.9 → Week8 83.8
20Arizona83.8+6.9Opening 76.8 → Week2 74.6 → Week3 75.2 → Week4 76.1 → Week5 79.0 → Week6 81.6 → Week8 83.8
21Boise State83.7+9.5Opening 74.2 → Week1 75.1 → Week2 78.8 → Week4 82.6 → Week5 83.6 → Week6 82.9 → Week8 83.7
22Nebraska83.0+2.8Opening 80.3 → Week1 80.7 → Week2 81.9 → Week4 84.7 → Week5 86.1 → Week6 85.3 → Week7 83.0 → Week8 83.0
23Oklahoma82.9-1.9Opening 84.8 → Week1 88.8 → Week2 86.4 → Week3 85.5 → Week4 84.2 → Week6 83.5 → Week7 82.1 → Week8 84.3 → Current 82.9
24Louisville82.7+3.6Opening 79.1 → Week1 79.7 → Week3 83.8 → Week4 81.0 → Week5 79.5 → Week6 81.6 → Week7 82.7 → Week8 82.7
25Texas Tech81.9-2.0Opening 83.9 → Week2 81.8 → Week3 80.7 → Week4 83.2 → Week5 82.8 → Week7 83.4 → Week8 83.1 → Current 81.9
26Auburn81.6+1.5Opening 80.2 → Week1 79.2 → Week2 80.7 → Week3 79.9 → Week4 80.9 → Week5 80.2 → Week7 82.8 → Week8 82.6 → Current 81.6
27Michigan80.8-0.7Opening 81.5 → Week1 80.9 → Week2 83.3 → Week3 83.9 → Week4 83.4 → Week5 82.2 → Week7 80.6 → Week8 80.8
28USC80.8-4.4Opening 85.2 → Week1 85.5 → Week2 82.2 → Week3 81.5 → Week4 80.1 → Week5 80.3 → Week6 83.3 → Week8 82.4 → Current 80.8
29Texas A&M80.5-8.5Opening 89.0 → Week1 91.4 → Week2 91.8 → Week3 87.3 → Week4 83.1 → Week5 84.2 → Week6 83.5 → Week8 80.5
30South Carolina80.2-2.5Opening 82.7 → Week1 85.4 → Week3 83.5 → Week4 79.4 → Week5 76.1 → Week6 79.1 → Week8 80.2
31Iowa79.8-1.2Opening 81.0 → Week1 81.4 → Week2 78.5 → Week4 78.9 → Week5 78.7 → Week6 80.7 → Week8 79.8
32Baylor79.7+3.7Opening 76.0 → Week1 77.0 → Week3 76.6 → Week4 75.9 → Week5 80.4 → Week7 79.0 → Week8 79.7
33Duke79.7+4.3Opening 75.4 → Week1 73.6 → Week2 77.9 → Week3 81.2 → Week6 79.3 → Week7 78.5 → Week8 79.7
34Oregon79.0-6.5Opening 85.5 → Week1 84.6 → Week2 82.3 → Week4 84.4 → Week6 82.1 → Week7 82.8 → Week8 82.5 → Current 79.0
35Pittsburgh78.8+0.7Opening 78.1 → Week1 78.9 → Week2 79.9 → Week3 80.1 → Week5 79.7 → Week6 78.3 → Week7 78.0 → Week8 78.8
36Houston78.5-0.4Opening 78.9 → Week1 78.7 → Week3 79.9 → Week4 79.5 → Week5 77.5 → Week6 80.4 → Week7 80.1 → Week8 78.5
37Penn State78.0-6.5Opening 84.5 → Week1 88.3 → Week2 86.3 → Week3 86.6 → Week4 83.1 → Week5 81.4 → Week6 78.4 → Week7 78.0 → Week8 78.0
38Oklahoma State77.5+3.1Opening 74.4 → Week1 69.9 → Week2 72.2 → Week4 76.7 → Week6 76.4 → Week7 76.8 → Week8 77.5
39TCU77.5+0.2Opening 77.2 → Week1 76.2 → Week3 77.5 → Week4 76.9 → Week5 77.3 → Week7 78.8 → Week8 77.5
40Virginia77.2-3.4Opening 80.6 → Week1 85.1 → Week3 81.3 → Week4 83.4 → Week5 78.9 → Week6 78.7 → Week7 78.4 → Week8 77.2
41SMU77.2-3.9Opening 81.0 → Week1 82.6 → Week3 78.5 → Week4 77.7 → Week5 75.4 → Week7 75.7 → Week8 77.2
42Virginia Tech76.8-3.1Opening 79.9 → Week2 79.0 → Week3 79.8 → Week4 77.5 → Week5 77.8 → Week6 77.0 → Week7 76.0 → Week8 76.8
43New Mexico76.6+3.9Opening 72.7 → Week1 73.8 → Week3 74.7 → Week4 75.6 → Week5 77.4 → Week7 75.7 → Week8 76.6
44North Carolina76.5+2.3Opening 74.1 → Week1 75.2 → Week3 72.1 → Week5 74.2 → Week6 76.3 → Week7 77.1 → Week8 76.5
45Kansas76.0+3.6Opening 72.5 → Week2 70.7 → Week3 74.8 → Week5 79.3 → Week6 78.1 → Week7 76.8 → Week8 76.0
46UCF75.8+1.5Opening 74.2 → Week2 73.3 → Week3 72.3 → Week4 72.8 → Week5 74.8 → Week6 75.0 → Week8 75.8
47Florida State75.8+0.6Opening 75.2 → Week1 72.1 → Week3 72.6 → Week5 77.1 → Week6 75.0 → Week7 75.8 → Week8 75.8
48Oregon State75.7+10.3Opening 65.5 → Week1 65.6 → Week2 67.7 → Week4 70.7 → Week5 74.2 → Week6 77.2 → Week7 75.7 → Week8 75.7
49Washington75.6-0.6Opening 76.3 → Week1 76.0 → Week2 76.0 → Week4 74.9 → Week5 74.6 → Week6 72.6 → Week7 75.6 → Week8 75.6
50Cincinnati74.7-1.2Opening 75.8 → Week1 77.0 → Week3 74.5 → Week4 76.7 → Week5 72.9 → Week7 73.6 → Week8 74.7
51Clemson73.7-2.0Opening 75.7 → Week1 71.4 → Week2 69.6 → Week3 72.7 → Week4 76.1 → Week5 74.5 → Week8 73.7
52Kansas State73.5-5.6Opening 79.0 → Week2 80.4 → Week3 81.0 → Week4 78.8 → Week6 74.5 → Week7 75.8 → Week8 73.5
53Boston College73.4+6.0Opening 67.4 → Week1 66.2 → Week2 66.0 → Week4 68.3 → Week5 70.7 → Week7 71.0 → Week8 73.4
54Liberty72.9+10.2Opening 62.7 → Week1 61.2 → Week3 62.3 → Week4 66.4 → Week5 68.8 → Week6 71.6 → Week8 72.9
55James Madison72.9+1.9Opening 70.9 → Week1 72.4 → Week3 74.6 → Week4 76.7 → Week5 75.1 → Week6 73.8 → Week7 74.2 → Week8 72.9
56North Dakota State72.9+1.0Opening 71.9 → Week1 75.6 → Week2 73.7 → Week3 72.3 → Week5 75.0 → Week6 73.7 → Week7 73.7 → Week8 72.9
57Minnesota72.5-2.0Opening 74.5 → Week2 70.0 → Week3 70.3 → Week4 71.4 → Week5 73.3 → Week6 71.6 → Week8 72.5
58Vanderbilt72.3-5.4Opening 77.7 → Week2 76.1 → Week3 78.9 → Week4 77.8 → Week5 77.5 → Week6 74.5 → Week7 72.6 → Week8 72.3
59Colorado71.6-0.4Opening 72.1 → Week1 72.2 → Week3 69.3 → Week4 70.0 → Week5 70.4 → Week7 72.4 → Week8 71.6
60Louisiana Tech71.2+5.7Opening 65.5 → Week2 63.9 → Week3 64.2 → Week5 65.3 → Week6 67.3 → Week7 68.7 → Week8 71.2
61Toledo70.7+5.4Opening 65.3 → Week1 67.8 → Week3 67.8 → Week4 71.0 → Week5 69.0 → Week6 67.7 → Week7 69.4 → Week8 70.7
62Arkansas70.5-0.3Opening 70.8 → Week2 69.7 → Week3 69.3 → Week4 70.1 → Week5 68.5 → Week6 68.6 → Week7 70.5 → Week8 70.5
63Purdue70.4+1.7Opening 68.7 → Week2 68.5 → Week3 69.6 → Week4 68.3 → Week5 71.6 → Week6 73.4 → Week7 70.4 → Week8 70.4
64Arizona State70.3-5.5Opening 75.8 → Week2 75.4 → Week3 71.2 → Week5 66.7 → Week6 68.6 → Week7 68.0 → Week8 70.3
65Mississippi State69.9-9.1Opening 79.0 → Week1 81.2 → Week2 85.7 → Week3 87.6 → Week4 86.8 → Week5 83.8 → Week7 82.1 → Week8 79.9 → Current 69.9
66UTSA69.9+1.0Opening 68.9 → Week2 69.1 → Week3 70.4 → Week4 70.5 → Week5 70.9 → Week6 71.4 → Week7 69.9 → Week8 69.9
67Syracuse69.7-1.5Opening 71.1 → Week2 69.7 → Week3 69.5 → Week5 69.8 → Week6 70.2 → Week7 69.1 → Week8 69.7
68Louisiana69.7+5.1Opening 64.6 → Week2 67.9 → Week3 69.2 → Week4 72.5 → Week5 71.7 → Week6 70.4 → Week7 71.5 → Week8 69.7
69Memphis69.6+0.8Opening 68.8 → Week1 72.5 → Week2 68.8 → Week5 69.5 → Week6 72.2 → Week7 69.5 → Week8 69.6
70Georgia Tech69.6-2.2Opening 71.8 → Week1 71.6 → Week2 70.2 → Week4 69.0 → Week6 70.9 → Week7 72.0 → Week8 69.6
71North Texas69.5+5.3Opening 64.3 → Week1 62.6 → Week2 67.1 → Week3 63.6 → Week5 64.2 → Week6 66.5 → Week8 69.5
72NC State69.4-7.5Opening 76.9 → Week1 72.4 → Week3 69.6 → Week4 70.1 → Week5 71.6 → Week6 70.4 → Week8 69.4
73Fresno State69.3+1.4Opening 67.9 → Week1 64.7 → Week2 68.0 → Week3 69.8 → Week4 68.2 → Week5 71.2 → Week6 71.9 → Week7 69.3 → Week8 69.3
74Iowa State68.8-3.8Opening 72.6 → Week2 75.5 → Week3 76.7 → Week4 72.9 → Week5 71.6 → Week6 71.0 → Week8 68.8
75Maryland68.3-7.1Opening 75.4 → Week2 77.1 → Week3 76.3 → Week4 71.8 → Week5 70.4 → Week6 70.7 → Week7 68.3 → Week8 68.3
76Army68.2-1.8Opening 70.1 → Week2 67.2 → Week4 66.4 → Week5 65.2 → Week6 67.0 → Week7 69.0 → Week8 68.3
77Illinois68.2-7.7Opening 75.9 → Week1 75.8 → Week2 71.5 → Week4 73.0 → Week5 69.7 → Week6 68.0 → Week8 68.2
78West Virginia68.2-3.8Opening 72.0 → Week1 69.6 → Week3 73.3 → Week4 68.8 → Week5 70.2 → Week6 67.6 → Week7 66.9 → Week8 68.2
79Texas State67.8+5.0Opening 62.9 → Week1 62.5 → Week2 62.3 → Week3 65.8 → Week5 67.6 → Week7 69.8 → Week8 67.8
80Georgia Southern67.8+4.6Opening 63.2 → Week2 65.0 → Week3 61.5 → Week4 61.8 → Week5 64.0 → Week6 65.3 → Week7 67.8 → Week8 67.8
81Tulsa67.6+1.3Opening 66.3 → Week1 70.8 → Week2 68.1 → Week4 67.3 → Week5 66.8 → Week6 66.0 → Week7 66.8 → Week8 67.6
82Michigan State67.4-5.1Opening 72.6 → Week1 70.1 → Week2 70.0 → Week3 71.5 → Week4 68.7 → Week5 66.1 → Week6 67.8 → Week7 67.6 → Week8 67.4
83UNLV67.3+1.1Opening 66.1 → Week1 65.6 → Week2 61.1 → Week4 65.6 → Week5 66.7 → Week6 68.0 → Week7 67.3 → Week8 67.3
84South Florida67.0-2.0Opening 68.9 → Week1 67.9 → Week2 70.8 → Week4 69.2 → Week5 68.2 → Week6 67.6 → Week7 67.0 → Week8 67.0
85UConn66.5+4.2Opening 62.3 → Week2 60.6 → Week3 64.3 → Week4 63.8 → Week5 63.5 → Week6 65.3 → Week8 66.5
86Navy65.9-2.3Opening 68.2 → Week2 66.4 → Week4 63.4 → Week5 66.2 → Week6 67.3 → Week7 68.9 → Week8 65.9
87Air Force64.8-2.7Opening 67.5 → Week2 69.4 → Week4 70.1 → Week5 67.2 → Week6 65.4 → Week7 66.0 → Week8 64.8
88Utah State64.7+2.5Opening 62.2 → Week2 62.2 → Week3 62.2 → Week4 65.0 → Week5 63.9 → Week6 62.7 → Week8 64.7
89Western Michigan64.7-3.5Opening 68.2 → Week1 68.8 → Week3 67.6 → Week4 63.8 → Week5 63.4 → Week6 65.2 → Week7 65.9 → Week8 64.7
90Temple64.7-0.5Opening 65.1 → Week2 67.2 → Week3 67.1 → Week4 67.9 → Week5 69.0 → Week6 67.2 → Week7 64.7 → Week8 64.7
91Tulane64.4-1.1Opening 65.5 → Week1 67.2 → Week2 67.1 → Week3 66.5 → Week4 62.9 → Week6 61.8 → Week7 64.4 → Week8 64.4
92Georgia State64.2+10.4Opening 53.8 → Week2 57.3 → Week3 58.3 → Week4 60.6 → Week5 65.1 → Week7 64.7 → Week8 64.2
93East Carolina63.8-1.2Opening 65.0 → Week1 64.5 → Week2 65.2 → Week3 65.3 → Week6 66.7 → Week7 63.8 → Week8 63.8
94Jacksonville State63.4+0.1Opening 63.3 → Week1 59.6 → Week2 61.6 → Week3 65.1 → Week4 64.4 → Week6 63.7 → Week7 63.4 → Week8 63.4
95Arkansas State63.0+0.6Opening 62.3 → Week1 60.5 → Week3 59.2 → Week4 60.6 → Week5 61.3 → Week6 60.7 → Week7 62.5 → Week8 63.0
96Rutgers62.4-5.0Opening 67.4 → Week1 62.9 → Week2 63.2 → Week3 63.8 → Week5 61.8 → Week7 64.2 → Week8 62.4
97Nevada61.3-1.5Opening 62.8 → Week1 66.4 → Week3 63.0 → Week4 62.4 → Week6 60.2 → Week7 60.1 → Week8 61.3
98App State61.1-3.3Opening 64.4 → Week2 63.6 → Week3 63.7 → Week4 63.3 → Week6 58.8 → Week7 59.8 → Week8 61.1
99San José State60.8+1.0Opening 59.8 → Week1 64.8 → Week3 63.0 → Week5 62.7 → Week6 62.3 → Week7 62.0 → Week8 60.8
100Miami (OH)60.7-2.4Opening 63.1 → Week1 62.3 → Week3 64.8 → Week4 65.2 → Week5 62.0 → Week6 61.3 → Week7 61.3 → Week8 60.7
101Ohio60.5+0.6Opening 59.9 → Week1 59.5 → Week2 57.6 → Week3 58.4 → Week5 57.1 → Week6 58.5 → Week7 60.5 → Week8 60.5
102Stanford60.3-5.9Opening 66.3 → Week1 66.5 → Week3 63.1 → Week4 64.3 → Week5 61.3 → Week6 59.4 → Week8 60.3
103San Diego State60.3-8.5Opening 68.8 → Week2 67.7 → Week3 65.6 → Week4 62.4 → Week5 60.7 → Week6 57.7 → Week7 60.2 → Week8 60.3
104Colorado State59.9-4.2Opening 64.1 → Week1 67.2 → Week3 65.8 → Week4 65.7 → Week5 62.2 → Week7 59.9 → Week8 59.9
105UAB59.5+3.0Opening 56.5 → Week1 56.6 → Week2 57.7 → Week3 56.3 → Week4 59.3 → Week6 56.6 → Week7 59.5 → Week8 59.5
106Florida Atlantic59.4-3.9Opening 63.3 → Week1 61.0 → Week2 62.8 → Week3 63.3 → Week4 62.3 → Week7 60.3 → Week8 59.4
107Florida International59.3-1.0Opening 60.4 → Week1 61.5 → Week2 62.0 → Week3 61.5 → Week6 61.5 → Week7 61.8 → Week8 59.3
108California58.9-11.2Opening 70.2 → Week1 66.2 → Week2 67.6 → Week4 64.2 → Week5 62.6 → Week6 63.4 → Week7 60.4 → Week8 58.9
109Delaware58.9-4.0Opening 62.9 → Week2 64.6 → Week3 62.9 → Week4 60.8 → Week5 58.4 → Week7 58.1 → Week8 58.9
110Troy58.9-4.1Opening 63.0 → Week1 62.2 → Week3 63.0 → Week4 60.2 → Week6 62.4 → Week7 61.4 → Week8 58.9
111South Alabama58.8-2.8Opening 61.7 → Week2 61.8 → Week3 61.0 → Week4 60.2 → Week5 59.5 → Week6 60.1 → Week8 58.8
112Washington State58.7-4.4Opening 63.1 → Week1 63.4 → Week2 62.0 → Week4 61.2 → Week5 56.7 → Week6 57.9 → Week7 59.4 → Week8 58.7
113Coastal Carolina58.5-3.3Opening 61.8 → Week1 64.2 → Week3 65.8 → Week4 61.8 → Week5 59.6 → Week6 59.4 → Week7 58.5 → Week8 58.5
114Rice58.0-0.2Opening 58.1 → Week2 56.5 → Week3 57.7 → Week4 59.3 → Week5 59.0 → Week6 58.0 → Week7 57.2 → Week8 58.0
115Marshall57.6-2.6Opening 60.2 → Week1 56.4 → Week2 54.9 → Week3 54.6 → Week5 56.1 → Week6 56.3 → Week8 57.6
116Wyoming57.1-0.8Opening 57.9 → Week1 54.9 → Week3 53.4 → Week4 57.9 → Week5 55.3 → Week6 55.7 → Week7 55.9 → Week8 57.1
117Hawai'i57.1-6.6Opening 63.7 → Week1 60.4 → Week2 61.3 → Week4 56.8 → Week5 56.3 → Week6 55.1 → Week7 56.7 → Week8 57.1
118Middle Tennessee57.0+3.8Opening 53.1 → Week2 54.6 → Week3 58.0 → Week4 58.6 → Week5 54.1 → Week7 54.5 → Week8 57.0
119Kennesaw State56.6-3.3Opening 59.9 → Week2 56.4 → Week3 58.3 → Week4 56.9 → Week6 58.0 → Week7 57.9 → Week8 56.6
120Central Michigan56.5+0.5Opening 56.0 → Week1 54.8 → Week3 56.3 → Week4 56.9 → Week5 58.0 → Week6 56.6 → Week7 55.9 → Week8 56.5
121Bowling Green56.0+0.8Opening 55.2 → Week2 54.0 → Week3 52.8 → Week4 54.3 → Week5 57.6 → Week6 58.1 → Week7 55.9 → Week8 56.0
122Western Kentucky56.0-1.8Opening 57.7 → Week1 54.2 → Week2 52.7 → Week3 52.0 → Week5 51.3 → Week6 54.1 → Week7 56.0 → Week8 56.0
123New Mexico State55.8-1.3Opening 57.1 → Week1 58.7 → Week2 57.7 → Week4 56.7 → Week5 57.4 → Week6 56.1 → Week8 55.8
124Buffalo55.8-1.7Opening 57.5 → Week2 56.9 → Week3 56.7 → Week5 54.1 → Week6 56.1 → Week7 55.9 → Week8 55.8
125Old Dominion55.5-9.2Opening 64.7 → Week2 65.7 → Week3 65.6 → Week4 63.5 → Week5 57.5 → Week6 60.5 → Week7 58.0 → Week8 55.5
126Massachusetts54.7+3.4Opening 51.4 → Week1 55.9 → Week4 58.9 → Week5 54.7 → Week6 55.8 → Week7 55.9 → Week8 54.7
127Southern Miss53.3-4.0Opening 57.3 → Week2 55.8 → Week3 52.1 → Week4 55.6 → Week6 53.4 → Week7 51.5 → Week8 53.3
128Ball State52.5+0.2Opening 52.3 → Week1 49.1 → Week3 48.0 → Week4 47.1 → Week5 49.0 → Week6 49.5 → Week7 51.7 → Week8 52.5
129Kent State50.6-1.9Opening 52.5 → Week1 49.8 → Week3 49.6 → Week4 50.5 → Week5 51.7 → Week6 49.9 → Week7 50.5 → Week8 50.6
130Eastern Michigan50.4-6.3Opening 56.7 → Week1 55.4 → Week2 55.6 → Week3 51.3 → Week5 54.1 → Week6 52.2 → Week7 50.5 → Week8 50.4
131Missouri State50.4-6.2Opening 56.6 → Week1 54.1 → Week3 54.5 → Week4 55.3 → Week6 51.1 → Week7 51.2 → Week8 50.4
132Northern Illinois49.4-6.8Opening 56.2 → Week1 55.8 → Week3 55.1 → Week4 52.8 → Week6 49.9 → Week7 49.7 → Week8 49.4
133Sam Houston48.5-4.9Opening 53.4 → Week1 54.2 → Week2 57.0 → Week4 54.4 → Week6 50.1 → Week7 48.2 → Week8 48.5
134Akron48.3-6.2Opening 54.5 → Week1 52.4 → Week3 52.1 → Week4 47.6 → Week5 46.5 → Week6 48.4 → Week7 48.4 → Week8 48.3
135UL Monroe48.1-0.4Opening 48.6 → Week1 46.3 → Week2 45.3 → Week4 46.3 → Week5 47.0 → Week7 45.6 → Week8 48.1
136UTEP47.4-8.6Opening 56.0 → Week1 52.0 → Week3 51.5 → Week4 48.4 → Week5 46.7 → Week6 47.1 → Week7 47.4 → Week8 47.4
137Charlotte46.3-2.3Opening 48.6 → Week2 50.1 → Week3 50.0 → Week4 46.8 → Week5 46.1 → Week6 43.8 → Week7 46.3 → Week8 46.3
138Sacramento State41.1-10.0Opening 51.1 → Week1 50.4 → Week2 47.0 → Week3 48.4 → Week4 45.4 → Week6 44.8 → Week7 41.8 → Week8 41.1
CFB 2026 · Week 9

Every game this week

All 50 FBS-FBS games in Week 9, grouped by day and sorted by kickoff — the full slate, not just the ones with enough edge to make the Picks tab's tiered lists. Model is this site's own predicted margin; Market is the most recent line pulled, when one exists (50 of 50 so far).

Kickoff times are shown in Central. "TBD" means the network/time hasn't been set yet. Trend shows whether the market has moved toward the model's take since the line opened or away from it — it needs both an opening and a current line, so games without one show as flat.

Moving Toward Model
21
games, avg 1.7 pts
Moving Away From Model
10
games, avg 1.3 pts
Holding Flat / No Line Yet
19
games, 38% of week
50 games

Friday, October 30 3 games

KickoffMatchupLuckie
Number		Market
(open)		Market
(current)		Edge iHow far apart the model and the market are on this game, in points. Bigger means they disagree more. Blank means no book has posted a line yet.Model lean iWhich team the model favors more than the market does right now, based on that edge. Without a market line yet, this just shows the team the model favors outright.Trend iWhether the market has moved toward the model's take since the line opened (converging) or away from it (diverging), based on how much the gap between model and market has shrunk or grown. Needs both an opening and a current line to judge.
6:00 PM CTTulane @ Charlotte😴 🔑Tulane by 16.5Tulane by 11.5Tulane by 9.5-5.1Tulane2.0 away
6:30 PM CTBaylor @ UCF 🔑🔄Baylor by 1.5UCF by 2.5Baylor by 2.5-3.8Baylor2.5 toward
9:30 PM CTKent State @ Sacramento State 🔑Kent State by 7Kent State by 10.5Kent State by 7.5+3.4Sacramento State3.0 toward

Saturday, October 31 47 games

KickoffMatchupLuckie
Number		Market
(open)		Market
(current)		Edge iHow far apart the model and the market are on this game, in points. Bigger means they disagree more. Blank means no book has posted a line yet.Model lean iWhich team the model favors more than the market does right now, based on that edge. Without a market line yet, this just shows the team the model favors outright.Trend iWhether the market has moved toward the model's take since the line opened (converging) or away from it (diverging), based on how much the gap between model and market has shrunk or grown. Needs both an opening and a current line to judge.
11:00 AM CTUAB @ South Florida😴 🔑South Florida by 10South Florida by 7.5South Florida by 7.5+2.4South Floridaflat
11:00 AM CTBowling Green @ Western Michigan 🔑Western Michigan by 10.5Western Michigan by 14.5Western Michigan by 13.5-4.0Bowling Green1.0 toward
11:00 AM CTWisconsin @ Iowa Wisconsin by 1.5Iowa by 3.5Iowa by 1.5-5.0Wisconsin2.0 toward
11:00 AM CTCalifornia @ NC State 🔑NC State by 13.5NC State by 7.5NC State by 7.5+5.9NC Stateflat
11:00 AM CT NNotre Dame😴 @ Navy Notre Dame by 27Notre Dame by 30.5Notre Dame by 30.5+3.4Navyflat
11:00 AM CTBoston College @ Duke 🔑Duke by 8.5Duke by 7.5Duke by 7.5+0.9Dukeflat
11:00 AM CTIllinois @ Maryland😴 🔑Maryland by 2.5Illinois by 2.5Illinois by 2.5+5.2Marylandflat
11:00 AM CTSMU @ Syracuse 🔑SMU by 5SMU by 9.5SMU by 9.5+4.6Syracuseflat
11:00 AM CTArizona @ Texas Tech 🔑Texas Tech by 1Texas Tech by 4.5Texas Tech by 3.5-3.4Arizona1.0 toward
11:30 AM CTMichigan @ Rutgers 🔑Michigan by 15.5Michigan by 14.5Michigan by 14.5-1.2Michiganflat
11:45 AM CTAuburn @ Ole Miss 🔑Ole Miss by 10.5Ole Miss by 12.5Ole Miss by 10.5-2.0Auburn2.0 toward
12:00 PM CTMarshall @ Old Dominion 🔑Marshall by 0.5Marshall by 3.5Marshall by 2.5+3.2Old Dominion1.0 toward
1:00 PM CTKansas State @ Colorado 🔄Colorado by 1Kansas State by 2.5Colorado by 1.5+3.4Colorado2.8 toward
1:00 PM CTCoastal Carolina😴 @ Georgia State Georgia State by 7.5Georgia State by 6.5Georgia State by 4.5+0.9Georgia State2.0 away
2:00 PM CTUConn @ Air Force Air Force by 1.5Air Force by 1.5Air Force by 1.5-0.2UConnflat
2:00 PM CTLouisiana Tech @ South Alabama 🔑Louisiana Tech by 10.5Louisiana Tech by 4.5Louisiana Tech by 5.5-6.1Louisiana Tech1.0 toward
2:00 PM CTTemple😴 @ East Carolina East Carolina by 1.5East Carolina by 3.5East Carolina by 4.5-1.9Temple1.0 away
2:15 PM CTStanford @ Louisville😴 Louisville by 25Louisville by 21.5Louisville by 22.5+3.6Louisville1.0 toward
2:30 PM CTArizona State @ BYU BYU by 19BYU by 14.5BYU by 16.5+4.3BYU2.0 toward
2:30 PM CTKansas @ TCU 🔑TCU by 4TCU by 5.5TCU by 6.5-1.4Kansas1.0 away
2:30 PM CT NFlorida @ Georgia😴 Georgia by 9.5Georgia by 10.5Georgia by 11.5-0.8Florida1.0 away
2:30 PM CTUTEP😴 @ North Dakota State North Dakota State by 28North Dakota State by 24.5North Dakota State by 24.5+3.3North Dakota Stateflat
2:30 PM CTSouthern Miss @ UL Monroe 🔑Southern Miss by 3.5Southern Miss by 2.5Southern Miss by 3.5-1.0Southern Miss0.9 toward
2:30 PM CTNorthwestern @ Oregon 🔑Northwestern by 2.5Oregon by 3.5Oregon by 3.5-5.8Northwesternflat
2:30 PM CTFlorida International @ Liberty 🔑Liberty by 15.5Liberty by 11.5Liberty by 13.5+3.9Liberty2.0 toward
2:30 PM CTColorado State @ Utah State 🔑Utah State by 7Utah State by 3.5Utah State by 6.5+3.7Utah State3.0 toward
2:30 PM CTMinnesota @ Indiana Indiana by 21.5Indiana by 20.5Indiana by 20.5+1.1Indianaflat
2:45 PM CTVirginia @ Wake Forest😴 Wake Forest by 9Wake Forest by 13.5Wake Forest by 12.5-4.4Virginia1.0 toward
2:45 PM CTUtah @ Cincinnati 🔑Utah by 10.5Utah by 7.5Utah by 7.5-2.8Utahflat
3:00 PM CTNew Mexico @ San José State 🔑New Mexico by 14New Mexico by 14.5New Mexico by 14.5+0.3San José Stateflat
3:15 PM CTPurdue @ Penn State😴 🔄Penn State by 11Penn State by 7.5Penn State by 11.5+3.5Penn State2.9 toward
3:15 PM CTNevada @ UCLA UCLA by 27UCLA by 22.5UCLA by 22.5+4.7UCLAflat
3:15 PM CTSouth Carolina @ Oklahoma 🔑Oklahoma by 6Oklahoma by 3.5Oklahoma by 2.5+2.4Oklahoma1.0 away
5:30 PM CTApp State @ Georgia Southern😴 🔑Georgia Southern by 8.5Georgia Southern by 3.5Georgia Southern by 5.5+5.2Georgia Southern2.0 toward
6:00 PM CTWashington State @ San Diego State 🔑San Diego State by 3.5San Diego State by 3.5San Diego State by 2.5+0.2San Diego State1.0 away
6:00 PM CTOklahoma State @ Iowa State 🔑Oklahoma State by 6Oklahoma State by 9.5Oklahoma State by 9.5+3.7Iowa Stateflat
6:00 PM CTClemson @ Florida State😴 🔑Florida State by 5Florida State by 5.5Florida State by 5.5-0.4Clemsonflat
6:30 PM CTMississippi State @ Texas Texas by 19Texas by 20.5Texas by 20.5-1.7Mississippi Stateflat
6:30 PM CTOhio State😴 @ USC 🔑Ohio State by 8Ohio State by 6.5Ohio State by 6.5-1.6Ohio Stateflat
6:30 PM CTGeorgia Tech @ Pittsburgh 🔑Pittsburgh by 12Pittsburgh by 6.5Pittsburgh by 7.5+5.5Pittsburgh1.0 toward
6:30 PM CTMiami @ North Carolina 🔑Miami by 13.5Miami by 15.5Miami by 14.5+2.1North Carolina1.0 toward
6:45 PM CTMissouri @ Arkansas😴 🔑Missouri by 10.5Missouri by 9.5Missouri by 9.5-1.0Missouriflat
7:00 PM CTWashington @ Nebraska😴 🔑Nebraska by 10.5Nebraska by 9.5Nebraska by 7.5+1.1Nebraska2.0 away
7:00 PM CTArmy @ Memphis 🔑Memphis by 3.5Memphis by 6.5Memphis by 5.5-2.9Army1.0 toward
9:00 PM CTTexas State @ Boise State 🔑Boise State by 18Boise State by 11.5Boise State by 10.5+6.7Boise State1.0 away
9:30 PM CTNorthern Illinois @ UNLV😴 UNLV by 20UNLV by 23.5UNLV by 24.5-3.3Northern Illinois1.0 away
10:00 PM CTOregon State @ Fresno State😴 🔑Oregon State by 4Oregon State by 6.5Oregon State by 5.5+2.6Fresno State1.0 toward
CFB 2026 · ATS Leans

Where the model and the market disagree

Every game with a posted opening line, the week it was current. Edge is the model's home margin minus the market's, in points — the bigger the number, the more the two disagree. Grouped into the same edge tiers as the spreadsheet, biggest first.

Lines come from CollegeFootballData's odds feed, averaged across whichever sportsbooks it has for a given game — mostly DraftKings and Bovada right now, not a full market consensus. "Market (current)" is as of the last data pull for that week (Oct 30, 2026 for the current week); a past week's numbers are frozen exactly as they were before that week's games kicked off, not recalculated with later ratings.

Not betting advice. This is the model's raw output next to the market's, nothing more — see the Performance tab before weighting it against your own read. The model has not proven it beats the market over a full season yet.
Filter:
Games This Week
50
week 9 · 23 under a 3 pt edge, not tiered
6+ pts
2
games
5.00 - 5.99 pts
7
games
4.00 - 4.99 pts
4
games
3.00 - 3.99 pts
14
games

6+ pts 2 games

KickoffMatchupLuckie
Number		Market
(open)		Market
(current)		Edge iHow far apart the model and the market are on this game, in points. Bigger means they disagree more.Model lean iWhich team the model favors more than the market does right now, based on that edge.
11-01Texas State @ Boise State 🔑Boise State by 18Boise State by 11.5Boise State by 10.5+6.7Boise State
10-31Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama 🔑Louisiana Tech by 10.5Louisiana Tech by 4.5Louisiana Tech by 5.5-6.1Louisiana Tech

5.00 - 5.99 pts 7 games

KickoffMatchupLuckie
Number		Market
(open)		Market
(current)		Edge iHow far apart the model and the market are on this game, in points. Bigger means they disagree more.Model lean iWhich team the model favors more than the market does right now, based on that edge.
10-31California @ NC State 🔑NC State by 13.5NC State by 7.5NC State by 7.5+5.9NC State
10-31Northwestern @ Oregon 🔑Northwestern by 2.5Oregon by 3.5Oregon by 3.5-5.8Northwestern
10-31Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh 🔑Pittsburgh by 12Pittsburgh by 6.5Pittsburgh by 7.5+5.5Pittsburgh
10-31Illinois @ Maryland😴 🔑Maryland by 2.5Illinois by 2.5Illinois by 2.5+5.2Maryland
10-31App State @ Georgia Southern😴 🔑Georgia Southern by 8.5Georgia Southern by 3.5Georgia Southern by 5.5+5.2Georgia Southern
10-30Tulane @ Charlotte😴 🔑Tulane by 16.5Tulane by 11.5Tulane by 9.5-5.1Tulane
10-31Wisconsin @ Iowa Wisconsin by 1.5Iowa by 3.5Iowa by 1.5-5.0Wisconsin

4.00 - 4.99 pts 4 games

KickoffMatchupLuckie
Number		Market
(open)		Market
(current)		Edge iHow far apart the model and the market are on this game, in points. Bigger means they disagree more.Model lean iWhich team the model favors more than the market does right now, based on that edge.
10-31Nevada @ UCLA UCLA by 27UCLA by 22.5UCLA by 22.5+4.7UCLA
10-31SMU @ Syracuse 🔑SMU by 5SMU by 9.5SMU by 9.5+4.6Syracuse
10-31Virginia @ Wake Forest😴 Wake Forest by 9Wake Forest by 13.5Wake Forest by 12.5-4.4Virginia
10-31Arizona State @ BYU BYU by 19BYU by 14.5BYU by 16.5+4.3BYU

3.00 - 3.99 pts 14 games

KickoffMatchupLuckie
Number		Market
(open)		Market
(current)		Edge iHow far apart the model and the market are on this game, in points. Bigger means they disagree more.Model lean iWhich team the model favors more than the market does right now, based on that edge.
10-31Bowling Green @ Western Michigan 🔑Western Michigan by 10.5Western Michigan by 14.5Western Michigan by 13.5-4.0Bowling Green
10-31Florida International @ Liberty 🔑Liberty by 15.5Liberty by 11.5Liberty by 13.5+3.9Liberty
10-30Baylor @ UCF 🔑🔄Baylor by 1.5UCF by 2.5Baylor by 2.5-3.8Baylor
10-31Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 🔑Oklahoma State by 6Oklahoma State by 9.5Oklahoma State by 9.5+3.7Iowa State
10-31Colorado State @ Utah State 🔑Utah State by 7Utah State by 3.5Utah State by 6.5+3.7Utah State
10-31Stanford @ Louisville😴 Louisville by 25Louisville by 21.5Louisville by 22.5+3.6Louisville
10-31Purdue @ Penn State😴 🔄Penn State by 11Penn State by 7.5Penn State by 11.5+3.5Penn State
10-31Arizona @ Texas Tech 🔑Texas Tech by 1Texas Tech by 4.5Texas Tech by 3.5-3.4Arizona
10-31Kansas State @ Colorado 🔄Colorado by 1Kansas State by 2.5Colorado by 1.5+3.4Colorado
10-31Kent State @ Sacramento State 🔑Kent State by 7Kent State by 10.5Kent State by 7.5+3.4Sacramento State
10-31 NNotre Dame😴 @ Navy Notre Dame by 27Notre Dame by 30.5Notre Dame by 30.5+3.4Navy
10-31UTEP😴 @ North Dakota State North Dakota State by 28North Dakota State by 24.5North Dakota State by 24.5+3.3North Dakota State
11-01Northern Illinois @ UNLV😴 UNLV by 20UNLV by 23.5UNLV by 24.5-3.3Northern Illinois
10-31Marshall @ Old Dominion 🔑Marshall by 0.5Marshall by 3.5Marshall by 2.5+3.2Old Dominion
CFB 2026 · Week 9

Where the line has moved most

Same Week 9 games, ranked by how far the current line has moved off the open line — the market's own movement, independent of what the model thinks. Grouped the same way as Picks, starting one tier lower at 2.5 pts.

This is open-vs-most-recent-pull movement, not a full week-by-week trail — see the reply for the plan to get real day-by-day movement.

Games Moved 2.5+ pts
5
week 9 · 45 moved less, not shown
6+ pts
0
games
5.00 - 5.99 pts
1
game
4.00 - 4.99 pts
2
games
3.00 - 3.99 pts
2
games
2.50 - 2.99 pts
0
games

5.00 - 5.99 pts 1 game

KickoffMatchupOpenCurrentMoved iHow many points the line has shifted since it opened, regardless of direction.Toward iWhich team the market has shifted toward since the line opened.
10-30Baylor @ UCF 🔑🔄UCF by 2.5Baylor by 2.55.0Baylor

4.00 - 4.99 pts 2 games

KickoffMatchupOpenCurrentMoved iHow many points the line has shifted since it opened, regardless of direction.Toward iWhich team the market has shifted toward since the line opened.
10-31Purdue @ Penn State😴 🔄Penn State by 7.5Penn State by 11.54.0Penn State
10-31Kansas State @ Colorado 🔄Kansas State by 2.5Colorado by 1.54.0Colorado

3.00 - 3.99 pts 2 games

KickoffMatchupOpenCurrentMoved iHow many points the line has shifted since it opened, regardless of direction.Toward iWhich team the market has shifted toward since the line opened.
10-31Colorado State @ Utah State 🔑Utah State by 3.5Utah State by 6.53.0Utah State
10-31Kent State @ Sacramento State 🔑Kent State by 10.5Kent State by 7.53.0Sacramento State
CFB 2026 · Home Field Advantage

What each team's home edge is worth

Every FBS team gets its own home-field bump now instead of a flat +3.0 iThrough Week 2 the model gave every home team the same flat 3.0 pt bump. Starting Week 3, each team has its own number, built from that team's average home attendance and, for the handful of elevation venues, a documented altitude effect. — this is the exact value added to a team's rating whenever they host (0 on a neutral field). Built from average home attendance (percentile-ranked across FBS) plus a documented bump for elevation venues, then scaled so the FBS-wide average sits at 2.41 pts, capped at 4.0 (0 teams currently at the cap).

138 teams
# Team Stadium City, State Capacity HFA (pts)
1BYULaVell Edwards StadiumProvo, UT62,0733.51
2MichiganMichigan StadiumAnn Arbor, MI107,6013.38
3Penn StateBeaver StadiumUniversity Park, PA106,5723.36
4Texas A&MKyle FieldCollege Station, TX102,7333.35
5Ohio StateOhio StadiumColumbus, OH102,7803.33
6TexasDarrell K Royal–Texas Memorial StadiumAustin, TX100,1193.32
7TennesseeNeyland StadiumKnoxville, TN101,9153.31
8LSUTiger StadiumBaton Rouge, LA102,3213.29
9UtahRice–Eccles StadiumSalt Lake City, UT51,4443.29
10AlabamaSaban Field at Bryant–Denny StadiumTuscaloosa, AL100,0773.28
11GeorgiaSanford StadiumAthens, GA93,0333.26
12FloridaSteve Spurrier-Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin StadiumGainesville, FL88,5483.25
13AuburnPat Dye Field at Jordan–Hare StadiumAuburn, AL88,0433.23
14NebraskaMemorial StadiumLincoln, NE85,4583.22
15OklahomaGaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial StadiumNorman, OK80,1263.20
16South CarolinaWilliams–Brice StadiumColumbia, SC77,5593.19
17ClemsonFrank Howard Field at Clemson Memorial StadiumClemson, SC81,5003.17
18Notre DameNotre Dame StadiumSouth Bend, IN77,6223.16
19WisconsinCamp Randall StadiumMadison, WI76,0573.14
20Michigan StateSpartan StadiumEast Lansing, MI74,8663.13
21ArkansasDonald W. Reynolds Razorback StadiumFayetteville, AR76,2123.12
22IowaKinnick StadiumIowa City, IA69,2503.10
23WashingtonHusky StadiumSeattle, WA70,0833.09
24USCLos Angeles Memorial ColiseumLos Angeles, CA77,5003.07
25Ole MissVaught–Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth FieldOxford, MS64,0383.06
26Florida StateBobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell StadiumTallahassee, FL67,2773.04
27MiamiHard Rock StadiumMiami Gardens, FL64,7673.03
28Iowa StateJack Trice StadiumAmes, IA61,5003.00
29Texas TechGalaxy StadiumLubbock, TX60,2292.98
30Virginia TechLane Stadium/Worsham FieldBlacksburg, VA65,6322.97
31IllinoisGies Memorial StadiumChampaign, IL60,6702.95
32OregonAutzen StadiumEugene, OR54,0002.94
33Air ForceFalcon StadiumColorado Springs, CO39,4412.93
34KentuckyKroger Field at C.M. Newton GroundsLexington, KY61,0002.93
35MissouriFaurot Field at Memorial StadiumColumbia, MO65,0002.91
36NC StateWayne Day Family Field at Carter–Finley StadiumRaleigh, NC56,9192.90
37PurdueRoss–Ade StadiumWest Lafayette, IN61,4412.88
38West VirginiaMountaineer Field at Milan Puskar StadiumMorgantown, WV60,0002.87
39Arizona StateFrank Kush Field at Mountain America StadiumTempe, AZ53,5992.85
40Mississippi StateDavis Wade Stadium at Scott FieldStarkville, MS60,3112.84
41Colorado StateSonny Lubick Field at Canvas StadiumFort Collins, CO41,0002.83
42PittsburghAcrisure StadiumPittsburgh, PA68,4002.82
43Kansas StateBill Snyder Family Football StadiumManhattan, KS50,0002.81
44IndianaMerchants Bank Field at Memorial StadiumBloomington, IN53,5242.78
45WyomingJonah Field at War Memorial StadiumLaramie, WY29,8112.77
46North CarolinaKenan StadiumChapel Hill, NC50,5002.76
47ColoradoFolsom FieldBoulder, CO50,1832.75
48LouisvilleL&N Federal Credit Union StadiumLouisville, KY60,8002.74
49VirginiaCarl Smith Center at Scott StadiumCharlottesville, VA61,5002.72
50RutgersSHI StadiumPiscataway, NJ52,4542.71
51Georgia TechBobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai FieldAtlanta, GA51,9132.69
52MinnesotaHuntington Bank StadiumMinneapolis, MN50,8052.68
53Oklahoma StateBoone Pickens StadiumStillwater, OK52,3052.66
54UCFAcrisure Bounce HouseOrlando, FL44,2062.65
55TCUAmon G. Carter StadiumFort Worth, TX47,0002.63
56ArizonaCasino Del Sol StadiumTucson, AZ50,7822.62
57New MexicoUniversity StadiumAlbuquerque, NM39,2242.62
58Boston CollegeAlumni StadiumBoston, MA44,5002.60
59MarylandSECU StadiumCollege Park, MD46,1852.59
60BaylorMcLane StadiumWaco, TX45,1402.58
61KansasDavid Booth Kansas Memorial StadiumLawrence, KS41,5252.56
62SyracuseJMA Wireless DomeSyracuse, NY42,7842.55
63Fresno StateValley Children's StadiumFresno, CA40,7272.53
64UCLARose Bowl StadiumPasadena, CA89,7022.52
65East CarolinaBagwell Field at Dowdy–Ficklen StadiumGreenville, NC51,0002.50
66CincinnatiNippert StadiumCincinnati, OH38,0882.49
67CaliforniaCalifornia Memorial StadiumBerkeley, CA62,4672.47
68VanderbiltFirstBank StadiumNashville, TN40,3502.46
69SMUGerald J. Ford StadiumUniversity Park, TX32,0002.44
70South FloridaRaymond James StadiumTampa, FL65,8572.43
71HoustonJohn O'Quinn Field at Space City Financial StadiumHouston, TX39,7002.41
72Sacramento StateHornet StadiumSacramento, CA21,1952.40
73Sam HoustonElliott T. Bowers StadiumHuntsville, TX14,0002.39
74North Dakota StateFargodomeFargo, ND18,7002.37
75Boise StateAlbertsons StadiumBoise, ID36,3872.36
76Utah StateMerlin Olsen Field at Maverik StadiumLogan, UT25,5132.36
77NavyNavy–Marine Corps Memorial StadiumAnnapolis, MD34,0002.34
78App StateKidd Brewer StadiumBoone, NC30,0002.31
79UNLVAllegiant StadiumParadise, NV65,0002.30
80NevadaMackay StadiumReno, NV27,0002.29
81UConnPratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler FieldEast Hartford, CT38,0002.28
82Oregon StateReser StadiumCorvallis, OR35,5482.27
83MemphisSimmons Bank Liberty StadiumMemphis, TN50,0002.25
84Wake ForestAllegacy Federal Credit Union StadiumWinston-Salem, NC31,5002.24
85ArmyBlaik Field at Michie StadiumWest Point, NY30,0002.22
86StanfordStanford StadiumStanford, CA50,4242.21
87Southern MissCarlisle-Faulkner Field at M.M. Roberts StadiumHattiesburg, MS36,0002.20
88Washington StateMartin StadiumPullman, WA32,9522.17
89San Diego StateSnapdragon StadiumSan Diego, CA35,0002.15
90MarshallJoan C. Edwards StadiumHuntington, WV30,4752.14
91North TexasDATCU StadiumDenton, TX30,1002.11
92UTSAAlamodomeSan Antonio, TX64,0002.09
93DukeBrooks Field at Wallace Wade StadiumDurham, NC35,0182.08
94James MadisonBridgeforth StadiumHarrisonburg, VA24,8772.06
95TulaneBenson Field at Yulman StadiumNew Orleans, LA30,0002.05
96TroyVeterans Memorial Stadium at Larry Blakeney FieldTroy, AL30,4702.03
97RiceRice StadiumHouston, TX47,0002.01
98Georgia SouthernAllen E. Paulson StadiumStatesboro, GA25,0001.99
99Louisiana TechJoe Aillet StadiumRuston, LA28,5621.98
100Texas StateJim Wacker Field at UFCU StadiumSan Marcos, TX28,3881.96
101ToledoGlass BowlToledo, OH26,0381.95
102OhioFrank Solich Field at Peden StadiumAthens, OH24,0001.93
103Western MichiganWaldo StadiumKalamazoo, MI36,3611.92
104LouisianaCajun FieldLafayette, LA30,0001.90
105UABProtective StadiumBirmingham, AL47,1001.89
106Jacksonville StateBurgess–Snow Field at AmFirst StadiumJacksonville, AL22,5001.87
107Old DominionKornblau Field at S.B. Ballard StadiumNorfolk, VA21,9441.85
108Bowling GreenDoyt L. Perry StadiumBowling Green, OH33,5721.83
109LibertyArthur L. Williams StadiumLynchburg, VA25,0001.82
110Coastal CarolinaBrooks StadiumConway, SC21,0001.80
111Florida AtlanticHoward Schnellenberger Field at Flagler Credit Union StadiumBoca Raton, FL30,0001.77
112TempleLincoln Financial FieldPhiladelphia, PA67,5941.76
113UL MonroeMalone StadiumMonroe, LA27,6171.74
114South AlabamaHancock Whitney StadiumMobile, AL25,4501.73
115Arkansas StateCentennial Bank StadiumJonesboro, AR30,4061.71
116DelawareDelaware StadiumNewark, DE18,5001.70
117TulsaSkelly Field at H. A. Chapman StadiumTulsa, OK30,0001.68
118Central MichiganKramer/Deromedi Field at Kelly/Shorts StadiumMount Pleasant, MI35,1271.67
119UTEPSun Bowl StadiumEl Paso, TX51,5001.66
120Georgia StateCenter Parc StadiumAtlanta, GA24,3331.64
121Eastern MichiganRynearson StadiumYpsilanti, MI26,1881.63
122Western KentuckyHouchens Industries–L. T. Smith StadiumBowling Green, KY22,1131.61
123San José StateCEFCU StadiumSan Jose, CA18,2031.60
124Florida InternationalPitbull StadiumMiami, FL20,0001.58
125BuffaloUB StadiumAmherst, NY25,0131.57
126Hawai'iClarence T. C. Ching Athletics ComplexHonolulu, HI15,1941.55
127CharlotteMcColl–Richardson Field at Jerry Richardson StadiumCharlotte, NC15,3141.54
128Middle TennesseeJohnny "Red" Floyd StadiumMurfreesboro, TN27,3031.52
129Miami (OH)Fred C. Yager StadiumOxford, OH30,0871.51
130NorthwesternRyan FieldEvanston, IL35,0001.49
131Missouri StateRobert W. Plaster StadiumSpringfield, MO17,5001.48
132Kennesaw StateFifth Third StadiumKennesaw, GA10,2001.47
133Kent StateDix StadiumKent, OH25,3191.45
134New Mexico StateAggie Memorial StadiumLas Cruces, NM28,8531.44
135Northern IllinoisBrigham Field at Huskie StadiumDeKalb, IL28,2111.42
136Ball StateScheumann StadiumMuncie, IN22,5001.41
137MassachusettsWarren McGuirk Alumni StadiumAmherst, MA17,0001.39
138AkronInfoCision Stadium–Summa FieldAkron, OH30,0001.38
Validation

Does this actually work?

Four readouts: Austin's own weekly card, the full automated ATS Leans record, the 2025 backtest that shaped this engine's design (K, HFA, the PPA-to-points conversion), and a running watch on one modeling choice (scale-matching).

Weekly Card Recap

Austin's actual hand-picked card each week, graded after the fact -- a subset of the leans below, plus occasional fades against the model. 1.1u to win 1u. The live card for the current week is an email-only perk for free subscribers, so it never appears here until it's graded.

Record
24-15-1
40 picks
Win %
60.0%
incl. pushes
Units
+7.5u
running total, 1.1u to win 1u
View all 40 graded picks
WkGamePickResultUnitsRunning
3Fresno State @ San José StateSan José State +7LOSS-1.1-1.1
3North Texas @ Texas StateNorth Texas +3LOSS-1.1-2.2
3Northern Illinois @ ArizonaNorthern Illinois +35WIN+1.0-1.2
3UAB @ LouisianaLouisiana -7 (-120)PUSH+0.0-1.2
3Houston @ Texas TechHouston +11WIN+1.0-0.2
3Georgia @ ArkansasGeorgia -24 (Fade the Model)WIN+1.0+0.8
4Sam Houston @ Texas TechSam Houston +35.5WIN+1.0+1.8
4UNLV @ AkronAkron +13.5LOSS-1.1+0.7
4Ole Miss @ FloridaFlorida -3WIN+1.0+1.7
4Louisiana @ CharlotteLouisiana -10WIN+1.0+2.7
4Navy @ UABNavy -6.5LOSS-1.1+1.6
4Oregon @ USCOregon -3 (Fade the Model)WIN+1.0+2.6
5Arkansas State @ LouisianaLouisiana -6LOSS-1.1+1.5
5San José State @ Hawai'iSan José State +3.5WIN+1.0+2.5
5Baylor @ Arizona StateBaylor +4WIN+1.0+3.5
5Akron @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan -6.5WIN+1.0+4.5
5Louisville @ NC StateLouisville -3.5LOSS-1.1+3.4
5Boston College @ SMUBoston College +21.5WIN+1.0+4.4
5Marshall @ James MadisonJames Madison -13.5WIN+1.0+5.4
5Texas Tech @ ColoradoTexas Tech -13 (Fade the Model)WIN+1.0+6.4
6Sacramento State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green -7WIN+1.0+7.4
6Missouri State @ Western KentuckyMissouri State +3LOSS-1.1+6.3
6Louisiana @ Louisiana TechLouisiana +3WIN+1.0+7.3
6Ole Miss @ VanderbiltOle Miss -9.5 (Fade the Model)WIN+1.0+8.3
6Duke @ Georgia TechDuke -4.5LOSS-1.1+7.2
6Iowa State @ BYUBYU -11.5WIN+1.0+8.2
6UCLA @ OregonUCLA +10.5WIN+1.0+9.2
7Alabama @ TennesseeAlabama -6.5LOSS-1.1+8.1
7Memphis @ TulaneMemphis -6.5LOSS-1.1+7.0
7Kentucky @ OklahomaKentucky +7WIN+1.0+8.0
7Arizona State @ Texas TechTexas Tech -13WIN+1.0+9.0
7New Mexico @ Hawai'iNew Mexico -14LOSS-1.1+7.9
7North Carolina @ DukeDuke -3LOSS-1.1+6.8
7Ohio State @ IndianaOhio State -3 (-115 · Circa)WIN+1.0+7.8
8Air Force @ WyomingAir Force -5.5LOSS-1.1+6.7
8Boise State @ Washington StateBoise State -13WIN+1.0+7.7
8Louisiana @ Southern MissLouisiana -9.5LOSS-1.1+6.6
8Ole Miss @ TexasOle Miss +3.5 (-115)LOSS-1.1+5.5
8UTSA @ TulaneUTSA -2.5 (-115)WIN+1.0+6.5
8Colorado @ Oklahoma StateOklahoma State -13.5WIN+1.0+7.5

ATS Leans Record

Weeks 3-8, graded against the line published with the pick (open) -- straight from Austin's ATS tracking spreadsheet, the same leans tiers as the ATS Leans tab.

Record
78-69
147 leans graded
Win %
53.1%
incl. pushes
Avg CLV iAverage favorable line movement for the lean side, in points -- positive means the market moved toward agreeing with the model after the bet.
+0.49
pts
TierWLPushWin %Avg CLV
3.00-3.992720057.4%+0.18
4.00-4.991617048.5%+0.30
5.00-5.991315046.4%-0.00
6+2217056.4%+1.39

Backtest & Live MAE

2025 backtest (762 games)

Corr. vs. your logged deltas iHow closely the model's week-to-week rating changes matched your own hand-graded changes in 2025, from -1 (opposite) to 1 (identical).0.62
Same-direction rate iHow often the model and you agreed a team should move up or down that week, regardless of by how much.77%
Model MAE vs. closing line iMean Absolute Error: on average, how many points off the model's predicted margin was from the actual final score. Lower is better.12.4 pts
Market MAE (the bar to clear) iThe same measurement using the closing betting line instead of the model's prediction — this is the number a model needs to beat to be worth using over the market.11.8 pts
Resultmarket still ahead

2026 season, live (n=444 games so far)

Model MAE vs. final score iMean Absolute Error: on average, how many points off the model's predicted margin was from the actual final score. Lower is better.11.2 pts
Market MAE (closing line) iThe same measurement using the closing betting line — the number the model is trying to beat.11.3 pts
Result vs. closermodel ahead so far
Market MAE (opening line) iThe same measurement using the opening betting line — the number the model's edges are actually built against, since that's the line it bets into before the market moves.11.5 pts
Result vs. openermodel ahead so far
Sample size8 weeks — early

Preseason Blend Monitoring

Before Week 1 there's no 2026 data yet, so every team starts the season with a power rating built by blending two outside preseason systems (SP+ and Sagarin). Those two systems don't share a numeric scale, so we're testing two ways to combine them: one that converts SP+ onto Sagarin's scale first, and one that blends the raw numbers as-is. From there, both versions get updated the exact same way, game by game, using real results — so this table isn't comparing two different models, it's checking which starting point turned out to be the better guess. Lower MAE (average points off the final score) is better; green means our current method (the scale-matched version) is ahead of the alternative.

DateWeekGamesScale-matched MAERaw blend MAEMarket MAEScaled − raw
2026-10-29wk 844411.08210.87811.282+0.20
2026-10-27wk 844411.08210.87811.282+0.20
2026-10-26wk 844411.08210.87811.276+0.20
2026-10-25wk 844411.08210.87811.276+0.20
2026-10-19wk 738811.0910.85111.352+0.24
2026-10-18wk 738811.0910.85111.352+0.24
2026-10-11wk 632911.10510.8411.471+0.27
2026-09-15wk 210010.2689.53612.208+0.73
CFB 2026 · vs. Sagarin

Where we and Sagarin disagree

Both rating sets centered on their own mean — now that our preseason seed is scale-matched to Sagarin's, the two run on nearly identical scales already (mean and spread both within a few tenths of a point), so this is a clean, direct team-by-team comparison.

Teams compared
138
common to both
Correlation iHow closely our ratings and Sagarin's agree on team order and spacing, from -1 (opposite) to 1 (identical).
0.98
centered ratings
Mean |delta| iThe average size of the disagreement between our rating and Sagarin's, in points, across all teams compared.
2.3
pts, avg. disagreement
Our rating Sagarin
138 teams
Team Our rating Sagarin Delta Range
Oregon82.890.0-8.3
California60.467.1-7.8
Temple64.755.8+7.7
Illinois68.074.4-7.6
Navy68.962.0+5.8
West Virginia66.971.3-5.5
Toledo69.462.8+5.5
Texas Tech83.487.6-5.3
Texas84.888.9-5.3
San José State62.055.7+5.2
Georgia Southern67.861.8+4.8
Houston80.183.7-4.8
Kansas76.870.9+4.8
Iowa80.784.3-4.8
Massachusetts55.950.1+4.6
Louisiana71.565.9+4.5
Boise State82.977.3+4.5
Rice57.251.7+4.4
Michigan State67.670.7-4.2
Purdue70.473.4-4.2
North Dakota State73.768.5+4.1
East Carolina63.958.6+4.1
Virginia78.473.3+4.0
Ohio State92.495.2-3.9
Bowling Green55.950.9+3.9
Tennessee85.488.2-3.9
Rutgers64.266.8-3.7
South Carolina79.181.7-3.7
Utah State62.758.0+3.7
Oklahoma State76.879.3-3.6
Troy61.456.8+3.5
Boston College71.066.4+3.5
Eastern Michigan50.552.9-3.5
SMU75.778.1-3.5
Coastal Carolina58.554.0+3.4
Arkansas70.572.8-3.4
Clemson74.576.7-3.3
Minnesota71.673.7-3.2
Middle Tennessee54.550.1+3.2
Tulane64.466.5-3.2
Arkansas State62.558.3+3.1
Florida International61.857.6+3.1
South Alabama60.162.1-3.1
Delaware58.153.9+3.1
Iowa State71.072.9-3.0
Liberty71.667.5+3.0
Stanford59.461.3-3.0
Arizona State68.069.7-2.8
North Texas66.568.2-2.8
Duke78.574.7+2.7
Sacramento State41.838.1+2.7
Nevada60.156.5+2.6
Louisiana Tech68.765.0+2.5
LSU89.590.9-2.4
Kentucky83.184.4-2.4
Washington75.676.9-2.4
Ball State51.748.2+2.4
UCLA85.386.6-2.4
Notre Dame93.094.3-2.4
Sam Houston48.249.5-2.4
Marshall56.353.0+2.3
Fresno State69.366.0+2.3
Kennesaw State57.954.6+2.2
UTEP47.444.1+2.2
UConn65.362.0+2.2
Jacksonville State63.460.2+2.1
Florida83.884.8-2.1
Miami92.193.0-2.0
Ohio60.561.4-2.0
Georgia State64.761.6+2.0
Colorado72.569.4+1.9
NC State70.471.2-1.9
San Diego State60.261.0-1.9
Colorado State59.957.0+1.9
Miami (OH)61.358.3+1.9
Old Dominion58.055.0+1.9
Florida State75.876.5-1.9
Texas A&M80.781.4-1.8
UAB59.556.6+1.7
Western Kentucky56.056.6-1.7
Oregon State75.772.9+1.7
Northern Illinois49.747.0+1.6
Southern Miss51.548.8+1.6
New Mexico75.773.1+1.5
New Mexico State56.153.5+1.5
James Madison74.274.6-1.5
UL Monroe45.643.0+1.4
Florida Atlantic60.260.5-1.4
Tulsa66.864.4+1.4
Hawai'i56.754.3+1.3
Nebraska83.884.0-1.3
USC83.383.5-1.3
UNLV67.364.9+1.3
Mississippi State82.179.9+1.1
Kent State50.548.3+1.1
North Carolina77.177.1-1.1
Washington State59.459.4-1.1
Missouri State51.251.1-1.1
Oklahoma82.182.0-1.0
Western Michigan65.965.9-1.0
Vanderbilt72.670.5+1.0
Georgia Tech72.069.9+1.0
Kansas State75.875.7-1.0
Ole Miss89.289.0-0.9
Penn State78.077.8-0.9
South Florida67.065.0+0.9
Akron48.446.5+0.8
Missouri83.783.4-0.8
App State59.857.9+0.8
Michigan80.678.8+0.7
Baylor79.077.1+0.7
Auburn82.882.4-0.7
Syracuse69.068.7-0.7
TCU78.877.0+0.7
Northwestern82.582.0-0.6
Army69.068.5-0.6
UCF75.074.5-0.6
Wisconsin83.081.4+0.5
Cincinnati73.672.0+0.5
Central Michigan55.955.3-0.4
Memphis69.568.8-0.4
Pittsburgh78.076.5+0.4
Louisville82.881.3+0.3
UTSA69.968.4+0.3
Georgia93.692.1+0.3
Utah85.885.0-0.2
Alabama92.791.4+0.2
Indiana92.891.4+0.2
Texas State69.868.9-0.2
Buffalo55.954.7+0.2
Maryland68.367.4-0.2
BYU87.486.2+0.2
Air Force66.065.1-0.1
Virginia Tech76.075.0-0.1
Charlotte46.345.1+0.1
Wake Forest84.283.2-0.1
Wyoming55.954.8+0.1
Arizona81.680.5-0.0
Reference

How this is computed

Rating engine

One power rating per team, in points, Elo-style: after each game, each team's expected margin (rating gap + that team's own home-field edge, if they were home — see the Home Field tab) is compared against its actual efficiency margin — net PPA/play (predicted points added) × 67, the calibrated conversion to points. The gap between expected and actual is the "surprise," and each team's rating moves by 10% of that surprise (K = 0.10) toward or away from its opponent. Games are processed in true chronological order by kickoff date, not batched by CFBD's week number, since some teams get two real games inside one week label.

Home-field advantage

Through Week 2, every team got the same flat +3.0 pt home edge. Starting Week 3, each team has its own value instead — built from average home attendance (percentile-ranked across FBS, both seasons of data pulled so far) plus a documented bump for the handful of elevation venues, then scaled so the FBS-wide average lands on 2.41 pts, capped at 4.0. See the Home Field tab for the full team-by-team list and every stadium it's tied to. The 2025 backtest numbers on this page still reflect the flat +3.0 version, since that model run is frozen.

Preseason seed

2026 starts every team at a 75% SP+ / 25% Sagarin blend rather than last year's end-of-season ratings — last season's numbers faded late from manual fatigue, and rosters turn over too much year-to-year to carry them forward directly. Sagarin has no API and no true preseason number of his own, so his ratings are pulled by hand from his page periodically and the blend is rebuilt each time.

CLV / picks

For each game, the model's rating-implied home margin is compared against the market's opening and closing spread. Edge is model minus market; movement toward model is how much the closing line moved in the model's direction versus the opener — the standard way to check whether a model is finding real signal the market later agrees with.

Tested and set aside

Three ideas were tried against the 2025 backtest and didn't hold up: splitting offense/defense ratings, stripping out turnover "luck" (fumble recovery rate), and a finishing-drives efficiency adjustment. All three made the model's predictions worse, not better, so none are in the live engine.